| Hooked
on Google.Microsoft in pursuit `full-speed ahead'
SAN JOSE, Calif. Microsoft may have been willing to
spend years developing Vista, the long-delayed upgrade
of its Windows operating system, but when Bill Gates
was presented with a plan for finally beating Google
in Internet search technology, he gave the engineers
just 100 days.
"Full-speed ahead," Gates told Stephen Lawler,
the leader of the just-formed Virtual Earth team. The
team met Gates' first deadline, as well as other equally
punishing milestones in the two years that followed.
But the effort has yet to pay off. Indeed, the harder
the coders from Redmond race after the crew from Mountain
View, the more Google seems to pull ahead.
During the past year, Microsoft introduced a slew of
online offerings. In addition to the widely praised
Virtual Earth, an exact 3-D representation of major
cities, there were three new search services, a new
portal, online video, classified ads, mobile e-mail
and social networking. And perhaps most importantly,
there was new adCenter software released in May that
was supposed to help Microsoft make more money from
its online offerings.
The result: The number of visitors to Microsoft's sites
has not budged, while the amount of time they have spent
there has dropped. Advertising sales have fallen. Meanwhile
Google's traffic and advertising have continued to surge.
Microsoft executives say they are taking the long view.
"We feel like we have the right services in place,
the right team in place to be successful, but it is
super early in this entire space," said Adam Sohn,
director of global sales and marketing for online services.
Official optimism aside, the early results have been
grim.
According to comScore Media Metrix, the total unique
audience that visited Microsoft's U.S. Web sites in
December 2006 was roughly 117 million, unchanged from
the previous year. Google is fast catching up, with
its number of unique visitors up 21 percent to 113 million.
Microsoft's page views, an approximation of how long
visitors spend at its sites, was down 12 percent in
December to 18 billion, according to the research firm.
Google's page views were up 90 percent to 13 billion.
Microsoft has steadily lost ground in search, despite
developing its own search engine in 2004. As of November,
Microsoft's share of Internet searches has fallen to
8 percent. Two years ago, when MSN search was released
in beta, Microsoft share's of U.S. searches stood at
14 percent, according to Nielsen//NetRatings.
Microsoft's Internet slide is reflected in its online
sales. During the quarter ended Sept. 30, sales for
the online business unit were $539 million, down 5 percent
in a year. Google, in cruel comparison, reported revenue
of $2.69 billion, an increase of 70 percent.
"Google is the next Microsoft because Microsoft
is the next IBM," said Stephen Arnold, a technology
consultant and author of "The Google Legacy."
"Just as Microsoft superseded IBM, Google is superseding
Microsoft."
Google's executives have avoided crowing over Microsoft's
misfortunes. But in a recent article that he wrote for
the Economist magazine, Google Chief Executive Eric
Schmidt predicted that open Web-based standards would
"sweep aside the proprietary protocols promoted
by individual companies striving for technical monopoly"
in 2007.
"The past few years have taught us that business
models based on controlling consumers or content don't
work," Schmidt wrote.
Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer and Chairman
Bill Gates continue to tout Microsoft's ability to innovate,
citing new features in core franchises like the operating
system and software applications as well as in gaming.
"For Microsoft, this year, it's a big, big milestone,
because the products we've been working on for many
years that are foundational products are now moving
into the marketplace," Gates said during his keynote
speech at the Consumer Electronics Show this month in
Las Vegas.
As Gates spoke, a Microsoft employee demonstrated Virtual
Earth as an example of the type of Microsoft innovation
the company is pursuing. Using an Xbox controller, the
employee flew through a 3-D replica of Las Vegas projected
on screen.
"This is pretty fun. It's also practical,"
said Justin Hutchinson, who ran the demo during Gates'
talk. "If I'm new to town, I can get a sense of
where everything is."
But even people who praised the product wondered if
it might exceed the needs of the average person. "It
seems like for most people's practical purposes, 2-D
driving directions with a richness of detail is what
they are looking for today," said Walter Pritchard,
an analyst at Cowen and Co.
Steve Berkowitz, former chief executive of Ask.com
who was hired by Microsoft in April to turn around its
online business, told the Mercury News that the company
needed to focus more on what consumers want and less
on whizbang technology.
"It's very much around the idea of moving the
mindset," said Berkowitz, who is credited with
reviving Ask after the company imploded along with the
dot-com bubble. "The technology is the enabler,
and the experience is what you have to focus on."
Berkowitz's carefully couched criticism is echoed by
search marketing experts who are struggling to use Microsoft's
new advertising software.
Sherry Mao, search marketing manager at Coremetrics,
a San Mateo company that helps other businesses manage
and measure online advertising campaigns, said her retail
clients were enjoying conversion rates on Microsoft's
adCenter that were as much as five times better than
conversion rates on Google.
But Mao said Microsoft's system was so cumbersome that
it could take hours to create a campaign that took only
minutes to launch on Google. "It's a very manual
process and it's extremely time-consuming," she
said.
Still, Mao said Microsoft impressed the Coremetrics
staff by offering to fly down and talk to them about
improving the software.
But even better software won't help without better
traffic numbers in Microsoft's battle with Google.
"We have to reach critical mass," Berkowitz
said.
In addition to hiring Berkowitz, Microsoft has taken
other dramatic steps to correct the course of its online
business.
In June it elevated an outsider, Ray Ozzie, the creator
of IBM's Lotus Notes, to the post of chief software
architecta role formerly held by Gates. Ozzie has advocated
the idea of "Live Services," or software that
will function as an Internet-based operating system
that outside developers can use to build applications,
much like they used Windows in the past.
Microsoft has even changed the way it writes software,
adopting agile programming methods, which emphasize
small teams and shippable products over lengthy planning
processes. "We got rapid-fire development down
pretty well," Sohn said.
In brand new areas, like mobile devices that connect
to the Internet, Microsoft is holding its own against
Google. According to Telephia, a research firm, 3.7
percent of U.S. mobile subscribers are visiting Microsoft's
mobile Web sites, compared to 3.5 percent for Google.
But even in this area, Microsoft is still No. 2. Kanishka
Agarwal, vice president of mobile content for Telephia,
said Yahoo is No. 1 with 5.9 percent of subscribers
due to the popularity of Yahoo mail.
The key thing that Microsoft is missing, said Allen
Weiner, a veteran tech analyst with Gartner, is the
single point of focus that was once embodied by Gates.
Gates turned over the CEO post to Ballmer in January
2000 but remained deeply engaged as Microsoft's chief
software architect until June.
The gradual withdrawal of Microsoft's infamous micro-manager
has showed up in a sometimes-puzzling lack of integration
of the company's products, Weiner said. For example,
its Zune multimedia player wasn't initially loaded with
videos from its Soapbox service. Its system for sending
instant messages on the Xbox is not connected to its
IM program for PCs.
Microsoft said it is working to stitch all its technology
together to give users of its software one simple and
powerful experience.
"The idea of connected experiences can go way
beyond what we've got this year," Gates said in
his speech last week. "We can take these incredible
improvements in the hardware, we can take the new type
of content that's even being designed for interactivity,
we can take this powerful software ... we can take that
and go to a new level."
"Don't underestimate Microsoft," Weiner added.
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