| Microsoft
forecasts bountiful Vista impact As Microsoft
revs up the Windows Vista marketing engine, it's touting
the economic boon the software is expected to bring
to the rest of the technology industry.
Microsoft commissioned an economic-impact study, released
Sunday night, that suggests Vista will help generate
$70 billion in revenue and 157,000 new information-technology
jobs in 2007.
The 14-page study by IDC draws on the research firm's
published data and forecasts covering all segments of
the IT industry, including hardware producers, third-party
software vendors and service providers.
IDC estimated the portion of the industry tied to Windows
Vista to determine what amount of incremental growth
it might produce.
"There is economic activity that's going to happen
anyway, but we think Vista will have a bump effect in
2007," said John Gantz, IDC's chief research officer.
Vista, the first new version of Microsoft's flagship
operating system in five years, was launched last month
for business customers and will be available to consumers
late next month.
The 157,000-job gain IDC attributes to Vista is in
addition to normal employment growth in the industry.
Gantz acknowledged that those workers may not work on
Vista exclusively.
"It's the share of employment that's driven by
Windows or that touches Windows," he said.
IDC forecasts that for every dollar of revenue Microsoft
brings in directly from Vista in 2007, the rest of the
industry will see $18 in revenue.
IDC expects Microsoft to ship 35 million copies of
Vista in the United States, generating nearly $4 billion
in revenue in 2007. (That works out to about $114 in
revenue per copy of Vista sold.)
Using IDC's multiplier, Vista could be worth $70 billion
in revenue to the IT industry in the U.S. next year.
Not all of that is net gain for the estimated 200,000
IT companies. Some revenue that is tied to Windows XP
and earlier versions of the operating system will be
replaced by Vista revenue, Gantz said.
David Gerhart, CEO of Seattle information systems and
management consultancy Tyrnstone Systems, said he is
not expecting Vista alone to expand his company's business
in 2007 and isn't planning to increase his 10-person
staff immediately.
"Vista, to us, is just another layer on the onion,"
he said, adding that his small- and medium-business
customers are more interested in getting e-mail on their
smart phones than moving to the new operating system
right away.
Suresh Kotha, a business professor at University of
Washington, said Microsoft benefits from funding and
publicizing the IDC research because it highlights the
company's position at the top of the industry and shows
that it cares about more than just its own balance sheet.
"They see themselves as an important leader and
contributor in the IT space, and not just focusing on
the bottom line but on their overall impact on the economy
and society," he said.
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